Tip For Newbury’s Ebf Mares’ Hurdle Finale On Saturday: Well Handicapped Oscar Rose To Take Mares’ Hurdle Final At Newbury On Saturday
Saturday’s card at Newbury features the EBF & TBA Mares’ “ National Hunt “ Novices’ Hurdle Finale, live in ITV4 at 3.15pm for which 21 horses remain in the mix prior to the final declaration stage. The Emma Lavelle-trained Woolstone One heads the weights on 11st 10lb and is available at 8-1 with most bookmakers but the daughter of Authorized may struggle to give 18lb to the well-treated Oscar Rose from the in-form Fergal O’Brien stable.
Narrow runner-up to Dame Rose in a Grade 2 National Hunt Flat Race at Aintree last April the six-year-old has failed to get off the mark over hurdles in six attempts but has several creditable efforts to her name and may have been let in lightly by the handicapper off a mark of just 119.
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At Chepstow in October the mount of Paddy Brennan finished a five and three quarter length fourth behind fellow rival If You Say Run ( 7-1 with several firms including William Hill and Betfred ) with another possible contender Roksana occupying third place. In Newbury’s extended 2m 4f contest Oscar Rose will be 13lb better off with the former and 11lb with the latter, putting in perspective just how leniently treated the daughter of Oscar could be.
Available at 12-1 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power, the mare looks way overpriced, especially if you take her penultimate run into account when she finished fourth, beaten just over three lengths, to Woolstone One who will meet the selection on a massive 19lb worse terms on Saturday.
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Although Oscar Rose failed to land odds of 4-9 on her most recent start at Taunton that was down to the fact that her saddle slipped soon after jumping the first hurdle, leaving Brennan with no option but to kick his feet out of the irons in the latter part of the race.
The biggest dangers to Oscar Rose may also be towards the bottom of the weights in Petticoat Tails ( 8-1 Boylesports ) and Lady Of Lamanvar ( 12-1 Paddy Power ).