Since the introduction of the new hybrid F1 cars at the start of the 2014 season Lewis Hamilton has retired from a race just five times. Of his other 39 race starts the reigning World Champion has failed to finish on the podium just twice and his record reads: 4 x thirds, 11 seconds and 22 wins.
So, the Englishman has a 50% win ratio and is twice as likely to win as to finish second. On these stats alone he should not be odds against to win Sunday’s Canadian race.
Throw in the fact he won here last year (when an 8/11 shot) and has tasted victory in Canada a total of four times from eight starts, and you have to conclude that the 6/5 is too big.
Bottas Can Finish in the Six
The attrition rate at the Montreal circuit is enormous with an average of 7 cars being non-finishers since 2001 and a modern-day average of six per-race. Accident and incident play a part but this track is harsh on equipment particularly the brakes.
But one car and driver which is likely to see the chequered flag and can also do well here is Valtteri Bottas in his Williams. The Finn has only suffered two retirements since the start of the 2014 season, his team can boast 11 points finishes during 2016 (from a potential 12).
Bottas was top-priced 4/11 about finishing in the ‘Top-6’ here last year and while the Ferrari’s have improved since then, you have to concede 11/8 (SkyBet) looks too big about him finishing in the top-six this time around.
Narrow Margin Stuff
Just three of the last 13 Canadian GP have been won by a margin of more than 5secs and one of those, 2004, was won by 5.1sec. It would seem the strategists lean towards their drivers maintaining a safe leading advantage to minimize the stress on their cars which could lead to mechanical failure. There are, after all, no extra points for winning by a wide margin.
Unsurprisingly we are opting for Bet365’s 11/8 on a ‘Winning Margin’ of under 5sec!
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