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F1 Betting: Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg look value bets to retire in Monaco

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If you are a ‘race win’ F1 punter there is only one way to bet/play the Monte Carlo Grand Prix and that is “as early as possible!”

The streets of Monaco may have been ideal for F1 racing back in the 1930’s but in this modern, and every era since the 1950’s, it is wholesomely inadequate as a racing circuit.  Consequently this is a race that is won on qualifying day as overtaking opportunities are non-existent and starting order normally mirrors the finishing order.  

From the moment practice starts at the principality (on a Thursday here with Friday being a Bank Holiday) we will have a good idea of which cars have pace and which will not excel around this quirky street road circuit. The problem is, so will the bookmaker’s odds compilers.

We don’t need to watch a practice session to know how fast the Mercedes is and we know it performs around this tight low-speed circuit better than any other car.  It has started on pole and won the race for the past three years.  But with 6/4 and 13/8 available about their two drivers and each-way terms of 1-2 1/3rd odds, there is no value in the win market.

Only a chaotic race can beat them although that is not impossible and if there is to be an upset it could catastrophic just like the 1994 Monaco GP when a 300/1 Olivier Panis prevailed. He was just one of just four cars to finish.

Can Mercedes Clash Again?

We have not got a crystal ball but, around this circuit where a third of the starters are expected to be non-finishers, we do like the 28/1 about either Hamilton or Rosberg being the first driver to retire.

They shared the accolade last time after colliding on the opening circuit in Spain and doubtlessly they have been given a rap over the knuckles for that get-together.  This could lead to them giving each other acres of space around the Monaco streets during the early stages and, in turn, opening a door for an over-zealous and ill-fated overtaking attempt from another enthusiastic driver.  Maybe we do have a crystal ball!

Under 16 is in Line with Stats

The total number of classified finisher’s line has been set at 16.5, it may be 4/5, but it is still wrong.  Six of the last eight races here have seen 16 or fewer finishers and those races have seen between 20 and 24 cars set off.  Likewise nine of the last 17 Grand Prix, only one of which was staged at a course representing anything like Monaco (Singapore), has produced 16 or less finishers.

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