National Hunt Chase Prediction: Ms Parfois to Take Advantage

Ms Parfois – 11-1 Sportingbet. Cheltenham 4.50pm Tuesday 13th March.

Tuesday’s National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase has attracted a field of 16 runners, four short of the race’s maximum, almost certainly due to the prevailing soft to heavy ground which is going to make the marathon contest a stamina-sapping affair where jumping and the ability to handle the conditions is going to prove crucial.

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One horse who has been crying out for soft underfoot conditions and a test of stamina is the Anthony Honeyball-trained Ms Parfois who is fancied to see off her male rivals, especially with the added bonus of the 7lb mares’ allowance which means the daughter of Mahler will be shouldering 10st 13lb as opposed to the 11st 6lb of the opposition.

The seven-year-old had a quiet introduction on her debut over fences when third of four at Uttoxeter back in November but made no mistake with that experience under her belt, winning races at Cheltenham, Newbury and Warwick before stepping up in class for the Grade 2 Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot.

Unable to match the finishing burst of favourite Black Corton in the closing stages the mount of Sean Bowen looked a big danger jumping the second-last but was beaten for a turn of foot by a horse well fancied for Wednesday’s RSA Chase over three miles. The extra mile of Tuesday’s contest should see Ms Parfois in a much better light and with the services of top amateur William Biddick ticks all of the boxes.

The Irish as usual hold a strong hand in the race with three of the first four in the Cheltenham betting pool – Jury Duty, Mossback and Rathvinden. The first named is not certain to be suited by the 4m trip but is respected with the excellent Jamie Codd in the saddle while the other two have been far from convincing with their jumping. Of those at a big price it would be no surprise to see the 33-1 chance (Betfair Sportsbook) Impulsive Star give Sam Waley-Cohen a good ride.