UFC 198 Free Bet: Back Fabricio Werdum to beat Stipe Miocic in the main event at UFC198Published May 11, 2016
The main card in Curitiba, Brazil will kick off at 3am on Sunday UK time and the main event promises to be a titanic battle between the UFC Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum and the hugely promising challenger Stipe Miocic.
The latter named Croatian is now a native of Ohio and fights out of the Strong Style Gym. The 33-year old has won five of his last six fights and a two fight KO rampage over Mark Hunt and Andrei Arlovski has set him a golden opportunity to fight Werdum and upset the native home champion!
Fabricio Werdum is yet to defend his belt, but a dominant win in Mexico over former champion and all-time heavyweight great Cain Velasquez has left no fighter in the division under any illusion as to the monster task facing them to dethrone the 6ft 4inch Werdum. He has only lost two fights in his last thirteen appearances inside the cage and has won his last six; including UFC wins over Roy Nelson, Big Nog, Travis Browne and Mark Hunt en route to his last fight with Velasquez.
A high level black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitzu, Werdum is a nightmare in his own guard, so Miocic will be loathed to engage his wrestling in order to set up a ground and pound. So, it could be that much of this fight, in the early stages at least, will be standing up.
Werdum is the marginal betting favourite at 8/13 with 888Sport, with Stipe Miocic trading at 11/8 with most firms. The “Method Of Victory” markets are often a good port of call to find some value, but with the fight being so hard to predict, none of the prices stand out. A KO/TKO victory for either wouldn’t surprise, nor would a submission win for the Champion, or even a decision either way.
With the home advantage going to Fabricio Werdum and given how impressive he was over Cain Velasquez, it seems sensible to take him to get the win by any means, which means taking slightly short looking odds of 8/13 as mentioned, but overall that could be the value play.